You might want to pause before asking Santa for that exciting new gadget this Christmas as you probably won’t use it as much as you think, according to a team of American researchers.
It seems that a stranger asked to guess how often you’ll use an item will give a much better indicator of how often you will use the gift, particularly if they know how often you think you might use it.
The study asked a group of people to estimate how much they would use a gift before Christmas, and checked with them a few months later to see how much it was actually used. According to one of the researchers “Fifty-nine percent of gifts were used less frequently than the recipients had expected to use them.” In many cases, the researchers found that people thought they’d use gifts twice as often as they actually did!
The researchers think this happens because people are rather optimistic about their own choices, while a stranger won’t show the same optimistic bias. If the stranger knows a person’s own estimate it allows them to guess more accurately: strangers who didn’t know the estimates of the participants came up with estimates almost as inaccurate as those made by the original participants.
So if storage space is at a premium this Christmas, or you’re unsure whether you actually want the latest shiny thing, you might want to seek a second opinion.
Paper reference: Vietri, J.T., Chapman, G.B., & Schwartz, J., (2009). Actor–observer differences in frequency-of-use estimates: Sometimes strangers know us better than ourselves
Social Influence, 4(4), p298 – 311. DOI: 10.1080/15534510902857862


